Anything can happen in MLB Showdown, but the odds certainly favor some cards, teams, and outcomes. Simulators Riley and Peter decided to use a computer simulation to discover the "on-paper" champion, a "what if dice rolling wasn't a factor" simulation. The computer compared each positional player, starting pitcher, and bullpen of a team against their divisional counter-parts and ranked them 1 thru 5 (1 being the best), giving each team a power ranking. The lower the score, the better the team is compared to their divisional foes, allowing us to see which teams are favored to win (on paper) their division and find the team in best position to win the wild card! Below is the computer's rankings, complete with projected standings, post season predictions, and a projected World Series champion:
AL East
Projected Standings:
1. Red Sox (38 points)
2. Blue Jays (39)
3. Rays (40)
4. Orioles (44)
5. Yankees (46)
Feedback: One of the most startling results, as co-favorite New York finds itself in the cellar here. The key factor was all of the 5 results from decent players, such as LF Bernie Williams and SP2 Kuroda. The Red Sox pitching staff's dominance is on full display, accumulating 6 points among 4 starters. This is one of the tightest divisions, with three teams at 40 points or fewer.
Full Rankings:
AL Central
Projected Standings:
1. Tigers (37 points)
2. Royals (40)
3. Indians (41)
4. Twins (43)
5. White Sox (46)
Feedback: The Royals were the surprise of the division, jumping the heavily favored Indians to take second place. Detroit overcame having the worst #3 and #4 starters in division to win the crown, demonstrating how potent their batting order, bullpen, and top two starters really are. Meanwhile, the Indians are dragged down by their weak bullpen, catcher, and third basemen, especially with the consistently good Royals, who didn't have a single player or unit earn a 5. Meanwhile, the White Sox had nine positions earn a 4 or higher, placing them squarely in last.
Full Rankings:
AL West
Projected Standings:
1. Rangers (39)
1. Angels (39)
3. A's (40)
4. Astros (41)
5. Mariners (46)
Feedback: No real surprise that Texas and LA finished tied, as they're neck-and-neck in most preseason predictions. However, it's eye-opening how close behind Oakland and Houston are, making this a clear four team race heading into the season. The Mariners are a ways back and don't lead in any categories, but taking second in the #3 and #4 starter's spots bodes well for them. The Rangers won the computer tie-breaker 8-6, which goes head-to-head in each category, over the Angels to take the division.
Full Rankings:
NL East
Projected Standings:
1. Phillies (31)
2. Expos (39)
3. Braves (44)
3. Mets (44)
5. Marlins (49)
Feedback: Philadelphia is clearly the class of this division, leading second place Montreal by an incredible 8 points, the largest margin in the baseball. Their pitching staff is dominant, but they're first or second in five hitting categories as well. Atlanta winds up tied for third, definitely a disappointment for the apparent #2 team in the division. Miami finds itself in last, as expected, by a large margin, but their ranking is deceiving. Their #1 and #3 starters are clearly better than 5 points indicates, making their pitching much better than it appears. Meanwhile the Expos are surprisingly in the top three of 11 of 14 categories, providing strong evidence they're a true playoff team.
Full Rankings:
NL Central
Projected Standings:
1. Brewers (37)
2. Cardinals (41)
2. Reds (41)
4. Cubs (43)
5. Pirates (46)
Feedback: The Brewers are the surprising division winners by a wide margin, separating themselves from St. Louis and Cincinnati with superb starting pitching. Meanwhile, the Cubs are happy with a fourth place berth. Not only do they escape the cellar, but have an infield totaling 11 points from five players, giving them the foundation for a very solid core. The Pirates may be in last place, but they managed five 1st or 2nd place showings, demonstrating that they do have some star power on the team.
Full Rankings:
NL West
Projected Standings:
1. Dodgers (39)
1. Diamondbacks (39)
3. Giants (40)
4. Padres (45)
5. Rockies (47)
Feedback: The five Rockies pitching categories outscored their entire lineup 24-23, demonstrating how prolific their offense should be while simultaneously showing how terrible their pitching shall be. They find the cellar, falling below a San Diego team that had 8 of 14 categories in 4th or 5th place. Meanwhile, the top three teams look like they'll be tightly contesting each other all season, with the Diamondbacks just barely winning a tie-breaker over Los Angeles to make the playoffs. Upon further review, the Giants look deadly in the three spot, especially with elite pitching that only counts ace Matt Cain as a 3.
Full Rankings:
PLAYOFFS
After the regular season simulation was completed, we simulated the playoffs. Each division winner advanced obviously, and were seeded accorded to the margin they won their division. Meanwhile, the wild card winner was the highest scoring, non-division winner. If there was a tie (like there was in both divisions, at 39 points), the wild card was awarded to the team with the largest margin over both the next best team and the fourth best team in their division.
AL East Champion: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card: Blue Jays
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: DBacks
NL Wild Card: Expos
ALDS
#1 Tigers defeated #4 Blue Jays, 3 games to 1
#2 Red Sox defeated #3 Rangers, 3 games to 2
NLDS
#1 Phillies defeated #4 Expos, 3 games to 0
#2 Brewers defeated #3 DBacks, 3 games to 2
ALCS
#1 Tigers defeated #2 Red Sox, 4 games to 3
The Tigers and Red Sox were tied, 7-7 after comparing the positions, so it came down to the tie-breaker: #1 starter, lead-off hitter, and clean-up hitter. Pedro Martinez got the Red Sox a point at SP1, but Juan Gonzalez defeated Manny Ramirez and in an extremely close call, Austin Jackson was selected over Dustin Pedroia to send the Tigers to the World Series.
NLCS
#1 Phillies defeated #2 Brewers, 4 games to 3
Another series that went to a the tie-breaker, as Milwaukee surprisingly hung with Philadelphia. However, Bobby Abreau and Roy Halladay were clearly superior than Nyjer Morgan and CC Sabathia, sending the Phillies to the World Series.
WORLD SERIES
Detroit Tigers defeat Philadelphia Phillies, 4 games to 3
The World Series came down to the tie-breaker again, with the computer selecting the 500 point Austin Jackson over 550 point Bobby Abreau to decide which team was "on paper" superior. The win was a huge upset, but it means that heading into the season, the odds on favorite to win it all is:
The Detroit Tigers!
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